{"id":17005,"date":"2019-03-15T03:19:41","date_gmt":"2019-03-15T03:19:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/?p=17005"},"modified":"2019-03-14T22:26:07","modified_gmt":"2019-03-14T22:26:07","slug":"strong-performance-of-video-games-in-2018-sets-high-bar-for-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/strong-performance-of-video-games-in-2018-sets-high-bar-for-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Strong Performance of Video Games in 2018 Sets High Bar for 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>DFC Intelligence just released its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/product\/upcominggames\/\">latest assessment of top 2019 video games<\/a>.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/product\/first-half-2018-video-game-assessment\/\">This also included an analysis of 2018 releases<\/a>.\u00a0 Overall, 2018 was a very strong year for video game releases.\u00a0 Of course, this means sales in 2019 could struggle to match the previous year success.<\/p>\n<p>The recent DFC Intelligence forecasts for the video game console market indicate that sales will be flat in 2019.\u00a0 Much of this estimate is based on bottom-up forecasting using sales analysis of individual titles.\u00a0 Right now, the 2019 lineup simply is not looking as strong as 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, we are early in the year and major shows like the Game Developer\u2019s Conference (GDC) next week and E3 in June have not occurred.\u00a0 However, as these shows decline in importance for new product announcements, we are cautious about expecting any major surprises.\u00a0 Right now, it appears 2019 will have a hard time living up to 2018.<\/p>\n<p>There were some major titles in 2018 that smashed expectations.\u00a0 Games like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate were expected to have strong sales and they did.\u00a0 However, other games did better than expected.\u00a0 Some titles that exceeded expectations included:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Marvel\u2019s Spider-Man: Spider-Man was expected to do well, but we were skeptical that this PlayStation 4 exclusive could hit the 10-million-unit mark. It did.<\/li>\n<li>Super Mario Party and Pok\u00e9mon: Let\u2019s Go Pikachu!\/Eevee!: We knew Smash Bros would be big, but in its latest financial report Nintendo announced by the end of 2018 Super Mario Party had sold 5 million units while the Pok\u00e9mon titles had sold a combined 10 million units. At 12 million units in less than a month, Smash Bros quickly passed the launch title The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild in sales.<\/li>\n<li>Monster Hunter World: This title became one of Capcom\u2019s biggest success stories. This includes a very strong launch on PC later in the year.<\/li>\n<li>Farming Simulator 19: In the age of free farming simulations, this is a lesser known regular title that is setting records on both PC and console systems.<\/li>\n<li>Assassin&#8217;s Creed: Odyssey: This is a franchise that has struggled in recent years.\u00a0 It made a comeback in 2017 with Origins.\u00a0 Odyssey sales proved this comeback was not a fluke.<\/li>\n<li>Octopath Traveler: Square Enix had a mixed year but this Switch RPG was a highlight. It sold very well but it is most notable for bringing an audience expanding genre (Japanese RPG) to the Switch.\u00a0 This title highlighted the Switch\u2019s portable features for an older audience.<\/li>\n<li>Far Cry 5: This spring 2018 title helped get the year off to a strong start.<\/li>\n<li>Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 (aka IIII): This title did very well even it did not meet company expectations.\u00a0 The fact that sales tripled on PC is a very strong sign as the market for high-end PC hardware starts to expand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, 2018 was not without its share of disappointments.\u00a0 The biggest disappointments of the year were Bethesda\u2019s Fallout 76 and Electronic Arts\u2019 Battlefield V.\u00a0 Some analysts blamed the success of Fortnite for the performance of these titles.\u00a0 Based on strong sales for other products DFC disagrees.\u00a0 Gamers have become pretty sophisticated and these products simply did not live up to expectations.<\/p>\n<p>It was also a bad year for collectibles.\u00a0 The card games Artifact from Valve and Gwent: The Witcher Card Game from CD Projekt underperformed.\u00a0 However, CD Projekt did pull a reverse Fortnite by spinning out the single player Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales from Gwent.<\/p>\n<p>Arena of Valor was Tencent\u2019s attempt to bring a hit China MOBA free-to-play game to the Switch.\u00a0 Consumers simply were not biting.\u00a0 On the physical collectible side, Ubisoft\u2019s Starlink: Battle for Atlas was an expected flop and showed why major brands like Disney and Lego have exited the toys-to-life space.\u00a0 By 2019, inventory of Starlink was being widely discounted from $75 to $25.<\/p>\n<p>Many smaller titles did not meet more modest expectations.\u00a0 This included Darksiders III which many investors were watching to see the potential of up-and-comer THQ Nordic.<\/p>\n<p>There were also many ports of products to the Nintendo Switch that died as expected.\u00a0 Some Switch ports that are interesting include Civilization VI, Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim and Stardew Valley.\u00a0 However, the later two launched in late 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, 2018 was a solid year for high-end game titles.\u00a0 The 2019 lineup is simply not looking as strong.\u00a0 Major publishers Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts are barely releasing new games.\u00a0 Already EA\u2019s Anthem has proven a dud.<\/p>\n<p>Star Wars Jedi: The Fallen Order is expected to be a big end of year title for Electronic Arts.\u00a0 However, its developer, Respawn Entertainment, has a sudden hit on its hands with Apex Legends.\u00a0 DFC will provide some more analysis on this soon, but we have concern that Apex may take some resources from The Fallen Order.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, DFC is conservatively forecasting 2019 high-end video game sales (games for console and PC) to be flat.\u00a0 One area that is likely to be up is digital subscriptions and microtransactions.\u00a0 This is helped by games like Fortnite and Apex Legends.<\/p>\n<p>Much of the year\u2019s performance will depend on the first-party titles.\u00a0 Sony and Microsoft appear to have a very strong slate, but we still need to see what is actually launching in 2019.\u00a0 Nintendo\u2019s lineup for the Switch currently looks modest, but often new products are not revealed until June.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/product\/upcominggames\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17007\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/topupcominggames.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2550\" height=\"3300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/topupcominggames.jpg 2550w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/topupcominggames-232x300.jpg 232w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/topupcominggames-768x994.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/topupcominggames-791x1024.jpg 791w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2550px) 100vw, 2550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DFC Intelligence just released its latest assessment of top 2019 video games.\u00a0 This also included an analysis of 2018 releases.\u00a0 Overall, 2018 was a very strong year for video game releases.\u00a0 Of course, this means sales in 2019 could struggle to match the previous year success. The recent DFC Intelligence forecasts for the video game [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[49,38,168,39],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17005"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17005"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17005\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17008,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17005\/revisions\/17008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}