{"id":16940,"date":"2019-01-18T03:30:47","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T03:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/?p=16940"},"modified":"2019-01-17T22:26:26","modified_gmt":"2019-01-17T22:26:26","slug":"bungie-destiny-of-activision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/bungie-destiny-of-activision\/","title":{"rendered":"Losing Bungie Raises\u00a0Big Concerns about the Destiny of Activision"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the past few months, a big topic for DFC Intelligence analysts has been investor concern over the fate of big game publishers Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.\u00a0 This issue really came to a head with the announcement that Bungie, developer of the Destiny franchise, was making a break from its publisher Activision.\u00a0 What exactly does this announcement say about the future of a company like Activision Blizzard?\u00a0 To be cute, in other words, what is the destiny of Activision?<\/p>\n<p>DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole was interviewed in a recent article by GameDaily.biz on the breakup of Activision and Bungie.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/gamedaily.biz\/article\/508\/activision-bungie-industry-analysts-talk-about-the-future-of-both-companies-destiny\">You can see the article here<\/a>.\u00a0 However, it is important to stress that this is much more than another news story.\u00a0 It is a harbinger of major changes in the video game industry landscape.<\/p>\n<h2>History of Destiny<\/h2>\n<p>Bungie was the developer behind Microsoft\u2019s massive hit Halo franchise.\u00a0 Until 2007, Microsoft actually owned Bungie.\u00a0 Bungie became independent right after the launch of Halo 3.\u00a0 In 2010, Bungie announced a 10-year publishing deal with Activision Blizzard.\u00a0 Under terms of the deal, Bungie retained the rights to its IP.<\/p>\n<p>The new IP from Bungie was a franchise called Destiny.\u00a0 The original Destiny had a huge launch in the fall of 2014.\u00a0 However, reviews were somewhat mixed, and many saw the initial Destiny as a disappointment.<\/p>\n<p>The goal of the Destiny franchise was to provide a living game with ongoing content.\u00a0 However, from the start there was concern about Destiny\u2019s loot system that favored experienced players and\/or people that paid a lot of money to become good.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/insertcoin\/2014\/09\/22\/destinys-loot-cave-showcases-bungies-lingering-endgame-problems\/#6f69d5b1f67c\">See this article from Forbes shortly after the game\u2019s release.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Destiny got regular updates until a sequel was launched in the fall of 2017.\u00a0 Destiny 2 started off to better reviews and even better sales than the original.\u00a0 However, the buzz over Destiny 2 seemed to quickly die off.\u00a0 In December 2017, the expansion the Curse of Osiris was widely panned.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.polygon.com\/2018\/12\/28\/18129269\/destiny-2-year-in-review-2018-curse-of-osiris-warmind-forsaken\">Polygon did a good end of <\/a>the year 2018 wrap up about the struggles Destiny 2 has faced.\u00a0 This article, written a week before the break between Activision and Bungie, described Destiny 2 as a game on the upswing after the release of the Forsaken expansion in September 2018.\u00a0 But they also concluded:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Even with these past few months of positivity, it\u2019s hard to look back on this year of\u00a0Destiny 2\u00a0and not see a troubled game.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So, the seeds had been set for several years for discontentment to rise between Bungie and Activision.\u00a0 We were surprised by the announcement because as the Polygon article mentioned, recent months had seen an improvement in Destiny 2.\u00a0 Nevertheless, it had been clear since the launch of the original game that Destiny was a troubled franchise.\u00a0 In November, Activision even cited a disappointing launch of Destiny 2 Forsaken as why they struggled to meet earnings.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16943\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/atvi.jpg\" alt=\"Destiny of Activision\" width=\"480\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/atvi.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/atvi-300x223.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Many analysts expressed surprise that Bungie got the rights to the Destiny IP.\u00a0 However, it was clearly stated in the original 10-year agreement back in 2010 that Bungie owned Destiny.\u00a0 There was only about a year to go on the 10-year period.\u00a0 Valuing Destiny as a core Activision franchise was already troubled.<\/p>\n<p>The more meaningful issue is what does this say about the ability of large publishers like Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts to compete in a world where the strategic focus of the game industry is rapidly changing?\u00a0 The ironically titled Destiny says a great deal about the future.<\/p>\n<p>For years, Activision, Electronic Arts have talked about moving from a physical business to a digital business. \u00a0However, it is much more than that.\u00a0 It is about the movement to games-as-a-service and even the inevitability of streaming game services.\u00a0 In these areas, the traditional game publishers are fairly weak.<\/p>\n<p>The movement to games-as-a-service and streaming games are issues that have been huge topics of recent DFC Intelligence research.\u00a0 In October 2018, DFC published <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/product\/business-of-video-games\/\">the Business of Video Games report<\/a> where we specifically talked about the challenge\u2019s publishers like Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts faced.\u00a0 We even wrote a piece about how both companies are making investments in the space.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"005wWn6brO\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/electronic-arts-and-activision-blizzard-focus-on-games-as-a-service\/\">Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard Focus on Games As A Service<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/electronic-arts-and-activision-blizzard-focus-on-games-as-a-service\/embed\/#?secret=005wWn6brO\" data-secret=\"005wWn6brO\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard Focus on Games As A Service&#8221; &#8212; DFC Dossier\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The big issue is that the core audience of both ATVI and EA are a gamer group that is not really fond of the games-as-a-service model.\u00a0 When Activision merged with Blizzard over 10 years ago, they became a major player in ongoing digital revenue.\u00a0 However, this model paled in comparison to what could be earned by the Asian business model and the model for mobile games like Candy Crush Saga (acquired by ATVI).<\/p>\n<p>The problem is those models do not translate to the primary Activision or Blizzard audience.\u00a0 Witness the outcry over the announcement of a mobile version of Diablo at BlizzCon in November 2018.\u00a0 The game, Diablo: Immortal, is being developed with NetEase.\u00a0 NetEase is a Chinese company well noted for its manipulative techniques to get users to pay for games.<\/p>\n<p>The reaction from Blizzard fans was overwhelmingly negative.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RtSmAwpVHsA\">By January the official YouTube trailer for Diablo: Immortal had been viewed 5.3 million time<\/a>s.\u00a0 A whopping 723,000 people hit the dislike button.\u00a0 This was 27 dislikes for every like.<\/p>\n<p>That, in a nutshell, is the issue faced by companies like Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts.\u00a0 Their current audience is simply not buying into new digital business models.\u00a0 The past few months have been hard for almost all stocks.\u00a0 However, with the Bungie split, investors are now expressing more long-term concerns.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16944\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ea.jpg\" alt=\"Destiny of Activision\" width=\"480\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ea.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ea-300x223.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In our recent reports, we have written about the future of streaming game services.\u00a0 DFC has an upcoming report that looks at the potential winners and losers as the industry moves to streaming models.\u00a0 Once again, publishers like Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts are not well-suited for the emergence of streaming game models.<\/p>\n<h2>Looking at Take-Two Interactive<\/h2>\n<p>Ironically, one traditional publisher that seems to be faring better than others is Take-Two Interactive.\u00a0 For years, DFC has criticized Take-Two\u2019s modest ambitions and inability to expand on its core franchise.\u00a0 Now Take-Two is looking like playing it safe may be a smart strategy.\u00a0 You can see our recent article reevaluating our opinion on Take-Two here.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"4tGON1IlL0\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/ubisoft-versus-take-two-interactive-when-less-is-more\/\">Ubisoft Versus Take-Two Interactive: When Less is More<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/ubisoft-versus-take-two-interactive-when-less-is-more\/embed\/#?secret=4tGON1IlL0\" data-secret=\"4tGON1IlL0\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;Ubisoft Versus Take-Two Interactive: When Less is More&#8221; &#8212; DFC Dossier\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Like other companies, Take-Two\u2019s stock has taken a beating in the past 3 months.\u00a0 It is down 20% since October.\u00a0 However, the stock is about the same price as it was a year ago.\u00a0 Activision Blizzard and, to a lesser extent, Electronic Arts have seen much more significant declines.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16946\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ttwo3.jpg\" alt=\"Destiny of Activision\" width=\"480\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ttwo3.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ttwo3-300x223.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Of course, there is a second side of this issue.\u00a0 What does the future hold for developers like Bungie? It is worth noting in June 2018, Bungie received a $100 million investment from NetEase.\u00a0 But like Blizzard, the Bungie consumer is likely to be just as opposed to NetEase style business models.\u00a0 \u00a0For now, that is a subject for a future article.<\/p>\n<p>For more information about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/product\/business-of-video-games\/\">The Business of Video Games<\/a> report or other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/contact\/\">DFC Intelligence research go here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16945\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/stockcomparision.jpg\" alt=\"Destiny of Activision\" width=\"480\" height=\"574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/stockcomparision.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/stockcomparision-251x300.jpg 251w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the past few months, a big topic for DFC Intelligence analysts has been investor concern over the fate of big game publishers Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.\u00a0 This issue really came to a head with the announcement that Bungie, developer of the Destiny franchise, was making a break from its publisher Activision.\u00a0 What exactly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":16947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[123,49,148],"tags":[161,424,12],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16940"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16940"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16940\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16948,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16940\/revisions\/16948"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfcint.com\/dossier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}