DFC Intelligence  

Forecasts for the Growth of Online Games and Interactive Entertainment
Table of Contents

Multiple scenario forecasting through the year 2002 are detailed in this expansive report. Using baseline statistics from several national consumer surveys, this report provides vital information of the future of online entertainment.

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Table of Contents

Page
Executive Summary 1
Part I: Baseline Statistics for the Online Entertainment Industry 7

A. Overview

9

B. Hardware Market

10

1. Personal Computers

11

2. Video Game Hardware

16

C. Software Market

18

1. Personal Computer Software

19

2. Console System Software

22

3. The Interactive Entertainment Software Market: 1993-1996

24

D. The Internet and Online Services Market

26

1. Overview

26

1) LANs:

27

2) Head-to-Head

28

3) Playing through a Central Server

29

2. Trends In Online Services

30

3. Baseline Statistics for the Internet and Commercial Online Services

33

4. Overview of the Online Game Industry

34

1) Revenue Streams

35

2) Hardware Device

36

3) User Type

37

4) Other Classification Schemes

37

5. Online Games Some Examples

38

6. Estimates for the Online Game Market: 1996

41
Part II: Comparing Other Industries 45

A. Overview

46

B. Historical Trends in Adopting New Technology

48

C. Historical Trends in Media

54

1. An Overview of Traditional Media: Advertising Dominated Industries

58

1) Newspapers

58

2) Magazines

59

3) Radio

60

4) Television

61

2. An Overview of Traditional Media: Industries Supported by Consumer Spending

63

1) Movies

63

2) Music

66

3) Cable Television

69

D. Advertising

74

1. Traditional Advertising

74

2. Online Advertising

79
Part III: Forecasts for the Growth of the Enablers 83

A. Overview

85

B. Hardware Market

86

1. PC Hardware: 1996-2001

86

1) Moderate Growth Scenario for PC Hardware

87

2) Aggressive Growth Scenario for PC Hardware

90

2. Video Game Console Hardware

93

C. Software Market

95

D. Forecasts for the Growth of Online Households

97
Part IV: Forecasts for Online Games and Interactive Entertainment 100

A. Overview

102

B. Moderate Growth Scenario

105

C. Aggressive Growth Scenario

110

D. Worst Case Scenario

115

E. A Look at 2002 and Beyond

120

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